Mathematics - Probability and Statistics - Advanced - Bayesian statistics - The Disease Test Paradox

Scenario: A disease affects 1% of population. A test is 99% accurate (99% true positive, 99% true negative). You test positive. What's the probability you actually have the disease? Most people guess 99%. Branch: student picks their guess. Reveal: it's only about 50%! Walk through: of 10000 people,